Using nine different climate models a research team focussed not the averages, but the extremes. Lead author Claudia Tebaldi and colleagues computed 10 different indices of climate extremes, with 5 related to temperature and 5 to moisture.
For all three greenhouse-gas scenarios, the models agree that by 2080-2099:
- The number of extremely warm nights and the length of heat waves will increase significantly over nearly all land areas across the globe. During heat waves, very warm nights are often associated with fatalities because people and buildings have less chance to cool down overnight.
- Most areas above about 40 degrees north will see a significant jump in the number of days with heavy precipitation (days with more than 0.40 inches). This includes the northern tier of U.S. states, Canada, and most of Europe.
- Dry spells could lengthen significantly across the western United States, southern Europe, eastern Brazil, and several other areas. Dry spells are one of several factors in producing and intensifying droughts.
- The average growing season could increase significantly across most of North America and Eurasia.
“Going to the Extremes: An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events” will appear in the December issue of the journal Climatic Change
ucar.edu: Press Release
Picture Credit: Copyright University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Photo by Mickey Glantz
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